Michigan's early vote? It's already ahead of 2022 turnout

Nearly 1.4 million Michigan voters had already cast a ballot by Tuesday morning — 18.8% of the state's 7,409,966 active registered voters, roughly one in five — as the first weekend of statewide early voting drew to a close. Early in-person voting for the November 3 general election opened Saturday, October 24, and runs through Sunday, November 1; some communities began earlier and some may add extra days.

As of 7 a.m. on October 27, the statewide total stood at 1,392,170 ballots cast:

• 1,176,375 returned absentee (mail) ballots
• 215,795 cast in person at early-voting sites

Voters have requested 2,154,870 mail ballots, including 2,016,031 from the permanent mail-ballot list.

"Michigan voters are showing enthusiasm for early in-person voting, making the first weekend a great success," said Aghogho Edevbie, Michigan Deputy Secretary of State.

How that compares to past elections

At the same point one week before the 2022 midterm election, Michigan had 1,126,246 returned mail ballots — about 50,000 fewer than this year's 1,176,375, a roughly 4.5% increase. Mail-ballot requests also rose, to 2,154,870 this year from 1,899,273 at the same point in 2022, up about 13.5%.

Michigan has only two cycles of statewide early in-person voting to compare — 2024 was the first general election to offer it. Detroit set a new city record on opening day, casting 2,305 early in-person ballots on October 24, topping the 1,897 cast on the first day of 2024 early voting. As of October 26, 4,476 Detroiters had voted early in person at the city's eight early-voting centers.

Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey said early voting was running at roughly double the 2024 pace, but cautioned that faster early voting does not necessarily mean higher overall turnout — when many vote early, fewer may vote on Election Day.

"Detroiters are not waiting for someone to knock on their door or an organization to motivate them. They are taking the initiative and heading to the polls," Winfrey said.

"For many, the motivation is right in their pockets. When a paycheck buys less at the grocery store and the gas pump, the stakes become personal. Detroiters are turning those everyday concerns into action," Winfrey added.

Party models are educated guesses

Michigan does not register voters by party, so there is no official government breakdown of early voters by party. Every party figure in circulation is a modeled estimate built from party registration or vote history — not an actual ballot count.

• NBC News, through its TargetSmart model, estimated Michigan's early electorate at 53% modeled Democrats, 38% modeled Republicans, and 9% other.
• ABC News, using L2 voter-file data, modeled the Michigan voters who had cast ballots by mid-October and who had participated in all four recent general elections as 58% Democratic and 40% Republican, versus 57% Democratic and 41% Republican at the same point in 2024.

Analysts caution that the early electorate reflects voters who habitually vote early, and that Election Day turnout remains decisive — early-vote numbers cannot predict final turnout or which party will win. A strong early-vote figure is better read as evidence of enthusiasm and access in named communities like Detroit than as proof of who will ultimately cast more ballots.

How to still cast your ballot

Early in-person voting continues through Sunday, November 1, at sites open at least eight hours a day. Some communities may offer optional early voting on Monday, November 2, but only until 4 p.m. Check Michigan.gov/Vote for your site's dates and hours.

A signed absentee (mail) ballot must be received by your city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, to be counted. A postmark by that time is not enough for most Michigan voters.

Eligible Michigan residents can register to vote or update their address in person at their local clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day, November 3, and then vote that same day — bringing proof of residency.

On Election Day, polling places are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time, and anyone in line by 8 p.m. may still vote.

Voters can confirm their registration status, find their early-voting site and hours, and locate their local clerk at Michigan.gov/Vote.